OPENAI
PRE-IPO
$840B
POST-MONEY
$0B
ARR (FEB '26)
0M
WEEKLY USERS
$0B+
TOTAL RAISED
$0B
CASH BURN '30
PROJECTED
REVENUE TRAJECTORY (ARR $B)
2022 - 2030P
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
| METRIC | VALUE | NOTE |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 33% | Down from 40% (2024) |
| Revenue Multiple | 33x ARR | vs 20x (Anthropic) |
| MSFT Rev Share | 20% | Through 2032 |
| Paying Consumers | 50M | 5%+ of WAUs |
| Business Users | 9M | 4x since Sep '25 |
| Compute Spend '30 | ~$600B | Revised down 57% |
| Cash-Flow Positive | 2030 | TARGET |
$110B MEGA-ROUND (FEB 27, 2026)
LARGEST PRIVATE ROUND IN HISTORY
| INVESTOR | AMOUNT | TERMS |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon | $50B | $35B contingent on IPO/AGI |
| NVIDIA | $30B | 3GW inference commitment |
| SoftBank | $30B | ~11% ownership, $64.6B total |
| Microsoft | DID NOT PARTICIPATE | Already owns 27% |
RISK FACTORS
HIGH
- Musk trial jury selection Apr 27 — seeking $79B-$134B
- $665B cumulative cash burn projection through 2030
- Gross margins declining: 40% → 33%
- Ad rollout on free tier risks alienating user funnel
VS
ANTHROPIC
PRE-IPO
$380B
POST-MONEY
$0B
ARR (MAR '26)
0%
ENTERPRISE REV
$0B
TOTAL RAISED
$0B
COMPUTE '30
1/6TH OF OAI
REVENUE TRAJECTORY (ARR $B)
JAN 2025 - 2027P
FINANCIAL OVERVIEW
| METRIC | VALUE | NOTE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Multiple | 20x ARR | vs 33x (OpenAI) |
| API Revenue | 70-75% | Pay-per-token |
| Claude Code Run-Rate | $2.5B+ | Doubled since Jan 1 |
| $100K+ Customers | 7x YoY | Growth |
| Fortune 10 Clients | 8 of 10 | Enterprise penetration |
| GitHub Commits | 4% | Of all public commits worldwide |
| Cash-Flow Positive | 2028 | TARGET (2yr ahead of OAI) |
$30B SERIES G (FEB 12, 2026)
850% VALUATION INCREASE IN 15 MONTHS
| INVESTOR | ROLE | NOTE |
|---|---|---|
| GIC (Singapore) | CO-LEAD | Sovereign wealth fund |
| Coatue | CO-LEAD | Growth equity |
| D.E. Shaw, Founders Fund | CO-LEAD | + ICONIQ, MGX |
| Sequoia, BlackRock, Fidelity | PARTICIPANT | + Goldman, JPM, Morgan Stanley |
RISK FACTORS
CRITICAL
- Pentagon designated "supply chain risk" — Mar 4
- Sued DoD in two courts — TODAY (Mar 9)
- 6-month DoD transition away ordered by Hegseth
- 79% of OAI customers dual-buy — loyalty thin